The dust has settled, the votes have been counted, and the results are clear. On a national level, November 5th, 2024, was not a good night for the Democratic Party. Talk shows have already started their post-mortems, and theories are emerging about what went wrong. But what about here in our little hamlet of Bedford? While national trends showed a familiar red-blue split, the local picture may be telling a different story.
Specifically, I’ve been looking at local data for our State Senate and State Representative races. What I found surprised me: Bedford may actually be trending blue at the local level. Let’s take a deeper dive into the numbers.
District 9: The Shifting Trend
District 9, which encompasses Bedford, has historically leaned Republican. Since the district’s inception, it’s only switched hands once — in 2018 — when Denise Riccardi briefly lost her seat, only to reclaim it soon after. But over the long term, the Republican margin of victory in District 9 has been slowly shrinking, especially since the early 2000s, the “golden age” of Republican dominance.
What’s behind this trend? To explore further, I looked at the vote totals by party since 2016, using publicly available data from the State of New Hampshire. The chart below shows an interesting pattern: Bedford’s vote count has remained fairly steady, with a slight increase over time. The data also shows a significant dip in Republican votes during midterm years, which suggests that local dynamics — including voter turnout and shifting political priorities — are playing a role in the overall results.
The Democratic Rise: A Clear Trend
Let’s take a closer look at the Democratic side of things. The data reveals a noticeable upward trajectory in Democratic votes over the past several election cycles. Bedford, represented by the blue line in the chart, has shown consistent growth in Democratic support, even tracking some of the midterm dips seen in Republican votes. Had Bedford not lost Peterborough to redistricting in 2020, the shift toward blue might be even more pronounced.
In fact, neighboring towns like Jaffrey and New Boston are also trending more Democratic, indicating that the region’s political landscape may be changing.
State Representative Races: A Bedford Phenomenon
Now, let’s zoom in on the Bedford-specific races for State Representative. This is where things get particularly interesting, as Bedford doesn’t share State Reps with any other town, and the local trends are much clearer.
The chart below illustrates the total number of votes cast by party in State Representative elections from 2016 through 2024. The data is striking: In 2016, Bedford Democrats fielded just three candidates and garnered just over 13,000 votes, while the Republican candidates received close to 50,000 votes. Fast forward to the present, and the story has shifted dramatically. Each election year since 2016, the Democrats have fielded more candidates, and their total vote count has steadily increased.
The Republicans, on the other hand, peaked in 2020 and experienced their usual midterm dip in 2020. Interestingly, they’ve yet to reach the high point they saw in 2020. This suggests that the momentum is shifting in favor of the Democrats, at least in local races.
What Does This All Mean?
So, what can we conclude from this data? While national trends might suggest a broader red-leaning picture, Bedford’s local political dynamics tell a different story. The gradual increase in Democratic support — particularly in our local State Senate and State Representative races — suggests that Bedford may indeed be trending blue.
Of course, this is only one piece of the larger political puzzle. Many factors are at play, from national party dynamics to local issues and voter turnout. But the data certainly paints an intriguing picture of Bedford’s evolving political landscape.
It’ll be interesting to see if these trends continue in the coming years, especially as more younger voters come of age and as political polarization continues to shape voter behavior across the state and country.
Final Thoughts
While November 2024 may have been a tough night for the Democrats nationally, here in Bedford, the local data suggests a slow but steady shift. Whether this trend holds in future elections remains to be seen, but for now, Bedford’s political future may just be a little more blue than we once thought.
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